Copper prices fell sharply after the holiday; new orders still grew slowly [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,748/mt, initially fluctuated upward to a high of $9,817/mt, then declined to a low of $9,729/mt, and finally slightly rebounded to close at $9,758/mt, a decrease of 1.95%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest reached 300,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2411 contract opened at 77,520 yuan/mt, initially peaked at 77,780 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 77,230 yuan/mt, and finally rebounded to close at 77,510 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.91%. Trading volume reached 35,000 lots, and open interest reached 163,000 lots. Macro side, the US Fed's bets on significant interest rate cuts have faded. Fed official Bostic stated that if monthly new jobs fall below 100,000, it would raise doubts about considering faster rate cuts. The US dollar index hovered at highs, suppressing copper prices. Meanwhile, a domestic meeting emphasized the urgent implementation of a package of incremental policies. However, due to high copper prices and no significant increase in consumption, copper prices remained under pressure. Fundamentally, post-National Day consumption was better than before the holiday, but due to high copper prices, new orders grew slowly. During the National Day, many companies halted production, reducing consumption. After the holiday, copper cathode inventories significantly increased. Additionally, on the supply side, imported copper is expected to arrive at ports this week, likely pressuring premiums. As of Tuesday, October 8, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 33,400 mt to 198,900 mt compared to before the holiday, due to reduced consumption from some downstream companies taking a few days off during the National Day. In summary, current copper cathode inventories have rebuilt, consumption is weak, and the US dollar index hovered at highs, suggesting that copper prices will lack support today.